Thursday, May 10, 2012

Stern warning on warming

The British government produced an authoritative review in 2010 of projected economic effects of varying levels of global warming.  It is referred to as the "Stern Report", after Sir Nicholas Stern, head of the Government Economic Service at the time.

Below is a figure summarizing the ecologic and economic projected effects.  It's from the executive summary of the report.

We're heading towards the higher end of this plot, as predicted by the rather amazing visualization tool developed by the NCAR based on IPCC-4 data.  The mean prediction for global temperature rise by 2100 is +3C, though more recent modeling has shown even higher deltas.

You can download the complete report from the British National Archives here.  It's meant to be readable by a lay audience.

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